Monday, June 13, 2011

predicting system outcomes

It has never ceased to amaze me that we can predict the tides, the position of planets in their orbits, and even the aerodynamic attributes of a new jumbo-jet still on the drawing board - yet we cannot predict the completion date for the average corporate project, or the impact of a new business process design.

The universe is alive in constant motion. Photons (quanta) move through space and time at the speed of light. Spinning quarks bang together to form protons and neutrons that make up the atomic nucleus. Electron orbit the nucleus of an atom. Atoms twist around each other, sharing orbiting, gyrating electrons to form molecules such as DNA that form the basis of life.

Life moves about the planet, digesting, respiring, working, warring, loving, communicating, and, to the point of this book, creating value, buying, selling and bartering in the motion of commerce. Raw materials, capital and labor move into enterprises, which transforms them into goods and services, and moves those goods and services into the market in return for compensation.

Planets rotate on their axis and revolve around their suns that revolve around the center of the galaxy. Galaxies cartwheel through space in a grand, cosmic choreography. Without this cosmic and quantum motion there is no energy, no matter, no life, no great thoughts to ponder, and no big sales.

In addition to the choreography of motion, planets, suns, and galaxies, atoms and subatomic particles, each have a structure and a definite and predictable organization.

As complex and chaotic as it seems, all of this grand and sub-microscopic motion is generally predictable, because it follows certain rules. Planets orbit suns in a particular manner and at a specific distance, following the "rules" called celestial mechanics. Understanding celestial mechanics allowed us to land men on the moon, spacecraft on Venus and Mars and send Voyager on a celestial journey out of the Solar System.

Likewise, atoms and molecules are organized in a specific way. The number of protons in an atom determines its physical properties. The orbital distance of an electron and the number of electrons in an orbit determine its affinity for bonding with other elements. Electrons orbit atomic nuclei in a particular way, and when jostled out of their orbit, vary their behavior according to the rules of quantum mechanics.

Because we understand certain of the rules of quantum mechanics we can alter the state of electrons, protons and other sub-atomic particles to our benefit. Computers, telephones, radios, X-rays, CAT scans, microwave ovens, regular and cable television, fax machines and Blackberry pagers exist because we understand certain of the rules of quantum mechanics.

Pharmaceuticals, plastics and a myriad of other "life essentials" exist and work reliably every day, providing us with comfort, safety and convenience because we know the rules of electron motion and the structural rules for molecules and can therefore, alter the way an electron moves to gain a benefit.

What Does All this Have to Do with Business?
Suns, planets and solar systems and molecules, atoms and electrons, are at opposite extremes - from the cosmically large to the infinitesimally small. Systems of suns and planets and systems of protons and electrons are physically, extremely different. The amazing thing is that many (but not all) of the rules of these extremely different systems are isomorphic, which means that, even though the systems are, physically, very different (heteromorphic) many of the rules governing their behavior are very similar in structure.

Business enterprises exist within that large chunk of the universe that exists between galaxies and atoms. From plants, animals and ecologies to schools, politics and commerce, these physically heteromorphic systems, just like atoms and galaxies, all have two sets of rules: A set of isomorphic rules that govern their structure and behavior, and a set of heteromorphic rules that differentiate one system from another.

General Systems Theory is the knowledge and understanding of the set of rules that are isomorphic across ALL systems -- from the cosmic to the subatomic and everything in between. By studying, analyzing and understanding the isomorphism of the rule sets that apply to very different objects and systems, we can begin to use those rules to design, optimize and operate within the systems of trade and commerce.

By applying General Systems Theory in design, we can build and implement stable and productive enterprises, business models, processes and organizations. By applying these rules in analysis and decision making, we can predict outcomes and make optimized and profitable business decisions.

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